1997年Text 5

Much of the language
used to describe monetary policy, such as “steering the economy to
a soft landing” or “a touch on the brakes,” makes it sound like a
precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link
between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are
long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the
economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary
policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked
rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.

如“引导经济软着陆”，“触动经济刹车”，不少这种用来描述货币政策的词语使人们听起来觉得这像是一门严谨的科学。而事实并非如此。利率和通货膨胀之间的关系并不是确定的。政策的变化在对经济产生影响前会有一段比较长且变化莫测的后滞期。因此，人们将货币政策的实施比做是驾驶一辆带有灰暗挡风玻璃、后视镜破碎及方向盘失灵的汽车。



Given all these
disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about
of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies
fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30
years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way
below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in
the 1970s and early 1980s.

虽然有这么多不利因素，但近来央行的银行家们似乎有了不少值得夸耀的东西。西方七大工业国去年的平均通胀率降到了2.3％，接近30年来的最低水平。今年7月略微上扬到2.5％。这一数据远远低于许多国家在70年代和80年代早期经历的两位数的通胀率。



It is also less than
most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of
economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s
inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6%
in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as
a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a
percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year.
This is no flash in the pan, over the past couple of years,
inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and
America.

这样的通胀率也低于许多预测家预测的数字。《经济学家》每个月都要邀请一些经济学转借座谈，1994年底接受访谈的一组经济学家指出，1995年美国的平均通胀率将达到3.5％。实际上，通胀率在8月份就降到了2.6％。而且全年通胀率有望维持在平均3％左右。英国和日本的通胀率比去年年底的预测要低半个百分点。这绝不是昙花一现。在过去的几年里，英国和美国的通胀率始终低于预期水平。



Economists have been
particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain
and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that
both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive
slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit
historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate
(5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural
rate of unemployment -- the rate below which inflation has taken
off in the past.

尤其让经济学家感到惊讶的是，英美两国的通胀率带来了良性的结果，因为传统的计量方法表明两国经济，特别是美国经济几乎没有出现滑坡。例如，美国的生产力利用率在今年早些时候创下历史新高，失业率（8月份为5.6％）已降到低于多数人预测的自然失业率。而在过去的时候，当失业率降到低于自然失业率时，通货膨胀率早已飙升。



Why has inflation
proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a
little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural
changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were
based upon the historical link between growth and
inflation.

为何通货膨胀会产生如此温和的结果？可惜的是，即使是最令人振奋的解释也有一些缺陷。一些经济学家认为，世界经济结构强有力的变化已经打破了那个以经济增长和通货膨胀的原有关联为基础的旧有经济模式。