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Decision-making thinking is not unlike poker--it often matters not only what you think,but also what others think you think and what you think they think you think.The mental process is similar .Naturally,this card game has often been considerable to people who,by any standard,good thinkers.
The great mathematician john was one of the founders of game theory.In particular,he showed that all games fall into two calsses:there are what he called games of 'perfect information',games like chess where the palyers can't hide anyting or play tricks:they don't win by chances,but by means of logic and skills .Then there are games of 'imperfect information',like poker,in which it is impossible to know in advance that one course of action is better than another.
One mistaken idea about business is that it can be treated as a game of perfect information.Quite the reverse.Business,politics,life itself are games that we must normally paly with very inperfect information.Business decisions are often made with many unknow and unknowable factors which would even puzzle best poker palyer . But few business people find it comfortable to admit that they are taking a chance,and many stille prefer to believe that they are palying chess,not poker.
The great mathematician john was one of the founders of game theory.In particular,he showed that all games fall into two calsses:there are what he called games of 'perfect information',games like chess where the palyers can't hide anyting or play tricks:they don't win by chances,but by means of logic and skills .Then there are games of 'imperfect information',like poker,in which it is impossible to know in advance that one course of action is better than another.
One mistaken idea about business is that it can be treated as a game of perfect information.Quite the reverse.Business,politics,life itself are games that we must normally paly with very inperfect information.Business decisions are often made with many unknow and unknowable factors which would even puzzle best poker palyer . But few business people find it comfortable to admit that they are taking a chance,and many stille prefer to believe that they are palying chess,not poker.
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沙发 Date:2008-09-22 21:58:05
